Professional Expert Advisor Night Hawk

Now it is time to move on to the statistical indicators of the indirect trading system evaluation. We consider the Z-score – this is a measure of deviation from the average of the transaction result value. If this parameter is positive, then a profitable trade is going to be followed by a losing one, if negative – it is going to be followed again by a profitable one. The further it deviates from zero, the higher this probability is. In our case the Z-score is -7.39, thereby confirming a high percentage of profitable trades Winning percentage is 80.6%. The average trade is relatively small and equal to 15.6 points, which allows to quickly close a group of orders in plus.
The Night Hawk advisor trades every day, but the main signal for opening orders comes only at night in the Asian session, which in turn guarantees entry only at the best prices. Daily trading without any restrictions on the days of the week allows to diversify the risk and avoid over-optimizing the trading system on historical data.

Let’s check the trading system for stability using the Monte carlo method. This system allows you to evaluate the system’s stability to changing market conditions, the minimum profit and maximum drawdown that may be expected from trading in the future. We will set the number of simulations to 100 (it does not make sense to set more), we will use the reversal of all trades and the random skipping of a certain percentage of the total trades number.

However, we choose the resampling technique. According to the analysis, the trading algorithm is highly resistant to the change of the probability distributions sample.

Now we are checking the predictive properties of the trading algorithm using retrospective analysis techniques. QuantAnalyzer predicts the potential future strategy performance using existing Monte Carlo simulation. At the first stage we are checking the consistency of the technique using the verification period; the yield line is within the range predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation as can be seen from the above graph.

Now we calculate the projected value for the next 200 trades, we see the forecast of future results on the graph – this is the range where the strategic equity should move. According to the practice of applying these statistical estimation techniques, we can highly likely expect that the results of the Night Hawk advisor work in the real market will be within the predicted range in the future.

As we may see, all test and verification results are positive and promising. The current settings for this pair showed its stability on historical data. We believe that this advisor will be able to make profit for its owner in future, with minimal time spent by the user.